Early Analysis of a Fragile Agreement

Two pieces of additional analysis of the deal as the dust starts to settle.  The first is a piece from AREU on the constitutional implications and challenges presented by the deal.  Perhaps the most interesting paragraph suggests:

“It is unfortunate that neither the United Nations, who assumed responsibility for conducting a 100% audit of the votes cast, nor the IEC saw fit to release the election results before the signing of the Agreement.  Reports in the media suggest that Continue reading

Abdullah says all the right things, but Rashid’s not so sure

Abdullah is saying al the right things about the deal with Ghani, giving some hope that the inauguration may actually go forward next week, which we certainly doubted at a few points.  Tolo quoted Abduallah as saying:

“Together, we, the government of national unity, will be able to address the problems of the country. “We’ve come together, hand in hand, to work toward a better tomorrow.”

He even went so far as to apologize somewhat for his role in the electoral chaos and attempted to somewhat justify the drawn out process (though nothing along those lines from Ghani yet): “I apologize to the nation that the election process was not completed sooner.  All our negotiations in the past months have been to ensure the interests of the nation.” (See the entire article on Tolo here)

Not everyone, however, is convinced and yesterday noted analyst Ahmed Rashid wrote an op-ed in The New York Times, which is a scathing (to put it mildly) critique of Continue reading

An E-Roundtable Discussion of the Afghan Elections by Members of Civil Society

What follows below is a virtual roundtable discussion that we arranged between a series of members of Afghan civil society who have worked on elections at various times.  It includes their thoughts on the recent deal between Ghani and Abdullah, as well as the potential repercussions for democracy in Afghanistan.

Farid Bayat:

First of all I would like to congratulate to the new president and applaud the political progress that has been made.   It should be pointed out, however, that this was not the outcome and anyone was expecting.  But, at least, now we have been able to end the uncertainty and ambiguity in our political system that has caused many people to suffer.  In my option, this solution, while flawed, made the best of a bad political situation.  We were on the brink of returning to civil war and many people were discussing the possibility of leaving the country.

That being said, the people still have Continue reading

Discontent Grumbling or the Beginning of the End

Over the past days both analysts and Afghan voters have been trying to sort out what Ghani and Abdullah’s agreement will mean for the political future of Afghanistan.  One of the things that is clear is that the agreement will only work if supported by the vast majority of key political players in the country.  There is particular concern about some of Abdullah’s hardline supporters.  As these leaders, however, begin to respond to the agreement, the crucial question is whether their complaints are simply political positioning or whether they signal genuine dissent which could lead to an unraveling of the deal.  Already Governor Atta, a key Abdullah supporter, has come out stating that Ghani is not actually the president (see excerpts from an interview on Khaama here) and some parliamentarians are suggesting that Election Commission officials should actually be put on trial (see the Tolo article here).

There are two important things to keep in mind here: First of all, no one should be surprised by Continue reading

What they are saying about the deal: Part II

We had a previous post on what prominent actors were saying about the lack of a decision (see here).  This is a follow up piece on responses to what is hopefully the decision that resolves the current crisis.

  • Ashraf Ghani: “Peace is our demand and, God willing, it will come…I and Dr. Abdullah are committed to the commitments we have made before the people.” (from The Washington Post here)
  • The White House (see Reuters here) : “This agreement marks an important opportunity for unity and increased stability in Afghanistan.  We continue to call on all Afghans – including political, religious, and civil society leaders – to support this agreement and to come together in calling for cooperation and calm.”
  • The Taliban spokesman in a Continue reading

Why Results Matter Part II

With many breathing a sign of relief as the Abdullah and Ghani have announced a still unspecified power sharing arrangement, the rather surreal Alice in Wonderland approach to elections continues.  On Saturday a deal was announced between Abdullah and Ghani which made Ghani president and Abdullah was given a Chief Executive position.  It was only after this deal was announced at a press conference with the two candidates that the ‘Independent’ Election Commission announced that Ghani had won the election (for more see this NYT article here).  During the announcement, however, no results were released.  Nor were final number of votes invalidated or total number of votes casts mentioned.  This is in sharp contrast with earlier rounds of voting when the IEC has released detailed results regarding polling station numbers even before the results were finalized.

As a result, it is clear that part of the deal was that the results would Continue reading

An Agreement is Reached in the Afghan Election Dispute, but What will it Mean?

In one of the first pieces of good news in months regarding the election in Afghanistan, today, Ghani and Abdullah signed a deal to establish a power sharing government.  Despite this good news, there are still worryingly few details and plenty of room for the arrangement to disintegrate.  In a typical quote on the deal Reuters wrote:  “Both sides said late on Saturday that the dispute over announcing results had been resolved but it was still unclear exactly what had been agreed upon.”  (See full article here)  The real question is whether the Afghan public will support a new arrangement and when so little information is being given to them, it’s hard to tell whether they should or not.  Even the White House, which has been overly optimistic throughout this process seemed hesitant stating: “We continue to call on all Afghans – including political, religious, and civil society leaders – to support this agreement and to come together in calling for cooperation and calm.”

Then next few days should begin to indicate whether there is support for this arrangement, but in the meantime, here’s a brief list of things that we don’t know about the deal:

Why Results Matter

With rumors of a deal finally being reached (see the Khaama article here), there is plenty to worry about in terms of Afghanistan’s troubled transition: what will the powers of the Chief Executive be?  Will the new structure actually be constitutional?  Etc.  But before all those issues are even addressed, the news that the results of the second round of voting may never be released is perhaps most worrying for the future of Afghan democracy (see the NYT article here).  There are understandable reasons why Abdullah, about to concede the presidency despite massive corruption and a flawed voter system for the second time in five years might want the results kept quiet, but doing so would be a mistake.  Not releasing the results sets the precedent that the votes never really matter.  It will emphasize Continue reading

The Indecision: What they are saying

As negotiations start and stop and the Afghan economy continues to decay, there’s not much happening other than talk in the media.  So to keep everyone updated on what’s being said, here’s some choice excerpts:

karzai-building-11-sep-14

Tolo photo of Karzai opening the new guesthouse

Ahsraf on the current state of negotiations: “We must come together and continue political talks. Afghanistan is the home of all of us; therefore, we need an inclusive national unity government…Our people have always been united. Our enemies should know that we are still united, despite all our political differences,” he asserted. “No one can divide this nation…We supported the 100 percent vote auditing to protect the genuine votes of the people. Therefore, the election commissions must announce the final results in the next few days and rid the nation of the uncertainty that lingers over the country.” (see Tolo)

More from Ghani: “We stood, stand and will stand firm on the formation of the national unity government from the beginning…but it shouldn’t be a two-headed government.” (from Reuters)

Abdullah’s spokesperson, Fazlur Rehman Orya responds: “The problem is the Ashraf Ghani team is trying to impose bogus votes on us. We will not accept them; only clean votes…I would point out one major difference; Ghani favours peace talks with the Taliban and Abdullah does not support any such move.” (see The Express Tribune)

Karzai on the candidates: “We want a new government and that can be brought to us by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.” (see CNN)

Karzai on inaugurating the new presidential guesthouse:  “This beautiful building was constructed in accordance with Continue reading